Emkay Global cautions of a potential 5-10% correction in Sensex and Nifty amid a post-election market rally. Smallcap and midcap stocks could see sharper declines. Nirmala Sitharaman's upcoming Union Budget is anticipated to prioritize capital expenditure (capex) over revenue expenditure (revex), signaling policy continuity.

HDFC Bank's stock rose 3% to Rs 1650.7 on BSE. Q1FY25 net profit was Rs 16,175 crore, up 35% YoY but down 2% QoQ. Interest earned was Rs 73,033 crore, expended Rs 43,196 crore.

Aelea Commodities shares listed on BSE SME at a 73.7% premium. The IPO, booked over 190 times, traded at a Rs 77 premium in the unlisted market. Proceeds will fund a new unit, plant setup, expenses, and corporate purposes. The company trades cashews and other commodities B2B, B2C, imports raw cashew nuts from Africa, and emphasizes customer satisfaction.

Wipro's shares dropped by over 7% despite a 4.6% YoY rise in net profit for the quarter ended June 2024. The revenue from operations saw a 4% decline compared to the same quarter last year. Brokerages have mixed views on Wipro's performance and growth prospects.

Three M Paper Boards listed at Rs 76 on the BSE SME platform, 10% above the Rs 69 issue price. Shares had a Rs 30 unlisted market premium and the IPO was subscribed 171 times. Funds will support new machinery, Ratnagiri plant upgrades, low-pressure boiler, working capital, and debt repayment; it makes biodegradable, recycled paper-based products for diverse industries.

The FMCG stock hit a record high of Rs 1269 on 7th March 2024 but it failed to hold on to the momentum. The stock drifted lower and moved in a range on the daily charts.

Stage is set for solid gains post-Budget with these 30 PSU and Modi stocks. Analysts predict a focus on defence, rail, infrastructure, and power sectors. Don't miss out on potential winners like HAL, BEL, L&T, and NTPC.

Sati Poly Plast listed on NSE SME at Rs 247, a 90% gain from the Rs 130 issue price. IPO booked over 400 times. Transitioning from trading to manufacturing from 2015 to 2019, it offers end-to-end packaging solutions.

Ahead of the budget, Indian markets fell. Sensex dropped 355 points, Nifty50 by 148 points. Reliance fell 2.5% from lower fuel margins; HDFC Bank, the country's top private lender, rose 1% after beating profit forecasts; Wipro dropped 8% due to weak demand in Europe and Asia-Pacific. Mixed performance among key stocks in early trading.

Reliance Industries shares dropped 3% to Rs 3,019 on BSE as it reported a 5% YoY profit decline, missing Street estimates for Q1. Jefferies lowered target price to Rs 3,525 citing retail underperformance and subdued oil-to-chemicals outlook. Nuvama set the highest target at Rs 3,786. Macquarie maintained a neutral stance, targeting Rs 2,750, citing potential downside to consensus EPS.

Nuvama advises holding Kotak Bank with a target of Rs 1,650. Despite a NIM decline from higher CoF and less unsecured loans, PAT rose 51% QoQ with a post-tax gain. RBI gaps are being addressed, and the CEO aims for mid-teens growth in unsecured loans.

IDBI Bank and Suzlon Energy are among 44 companies announcing first quarter results. IDBI Bank shows growth in deposits and advances, while Suzlon Energy reports a decline in profit. Stay informed about these companies' financial performance.

HCL Technologies, Data Patterns, and Shriram Finance announce July 23 for dividend eligibility. HCL Tech to pay Rs 12/share on August 1, 2024. Shares closed at Rs 1,594.35. Ex-dividend trading starts July 23. HCL declared 5 interim dividends totaling Rs 66 last year. Confirmed Q2 results. Other dividends include Goodyear Rs 15 and HIL Ltd Rs 22.5/share; T+1 framework.

Mid cap stocks getting back into momentum mode

Foreign investors are increasingly favoring India's discretionary consumption and capital expenditure sectors, with a significant rise in equity allocations. Sectors like capital goods, auto, and telecom are attracting substantial investments, offsetting outflows from other sectors like financial services and FMCG.

Excluding Big Tech, stocks rally on rate cut hopes. The equal-weighted S&P 500 recently outpaced. Optimism grows as Nasdaq 100 declines. Todd Sohn sees neglected stocks surging as Nvidia to Microsoft pauses. Investors note rising trends despite Wall Street's top-heavy S&P concerns, recording gains earlier this year, despite the worst weeks since April amid faith in Fed easing.

Investors on Dalal Street are concerned about regulatory risks as authorities discuss curbing speculative trading. With the budget approaching, there is debate over potential tax changes on equities. Market shows mild signs of worry, but experts suggest a relief rally if current tax structure remains unchanged.

RBI takes measures to manage liquidity as foreign inflows increase post JP Morgan index inclusion. Actions include selling government bonds and conducting sell-buy swaps in the forwards market. These steps aim to control rupee appreciation and excess liquidity in the banking system.

Stock market analysts foresee potential volatility before the Union Budget, with Nifty expected to consolidate or face a deep correction. Traders advised to be cautious and maintain strict stop-loss strategies. Investors suggested to watch market movements closely and consider booking profits in specific stocks.

“We are seeing consolidation in a broader range i.e. 2650-3500 for last two and a half years in Asian Paints stock price. Traders can buy for a target of Rs 3400 in the next 2-4 months,” Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said.

Domestic markets see profit booking and global selloff. Nifty indicates a negative start. Oil prices rise on rate-cut expectations. Dollar declines post Biden's announcement. Rupee hits all-time low. Watch out for Budget and Q1 results next week.

Biden's endorsement of Harris and China’s central bank rate cut caused the dollar to slip and Asian stocks to fall. The US dollar fell 0.2%, the Mexican peso climbed. Stocks in Japan and South Korea dropped. PBOC's reverse repo rate was lowered to 1.7%. Oil and gold prices increased. Focus points include Europe’s economic data, US growth, and corporate earnings.

Profit booking causes dip in equity indices after rally. IDBI Bank, Suzlon Energy, RIL, HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and JSW Steel in focus. RIL's profit down 5%. Major updates from YES Bank, Vedanta, JK Cement, HDFC Life, Patanjali Foods, Zaggle Prepaid, Jubilant Pharmova, EMS JV. Kotak Mahindra Bank posts Rs 6,250 crore profit.

Asian Paints, with a target of Rs 3400 in 2-4 months, rebounded after the 200-week EMA. Closing at Rs 2930 on 18 July 2024, down 18% from Rs 3566. Rebounded from 2700-2500 in May 2024. RSI at 50.3 and MACD bullish. Consolidating 2650-3500 range per Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking. Positional traders buy Rs 2900-3000.

Indian benchmark equity indices came off record highs to end lower on Friday, on broad-based profit booking ahead of the national budget. The S&P BSE Sensex closed 0.91% lower at 80,604, while the NSE Nifty50 index ended below the 24,550 level."The short-term trend of Nifty seems to have reversed from the all-time highs. The formation of candle pattern as per daily and weekly indicates possibility of more weakness in the market ahead. The next lower supports to be watched around 24200 and 24000 levels. Immediate resistance is at 24850 levels," said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.Here are 5 stock recommendations for Monday:"The short term trend of Nifty continues to be positive. There is a possibility of continuation of this range movement for the next 1 or 2 sessions before witnessing further upmove above 24,400 levels. A sustainable move above the key hurdle of 24,400 levels could open a sharp upmove for the market ahead," said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.Here are 5 stock recommendations for Tuesday:

Vedanta Limited raised Rs 8,500 crore through a QIP, issuing 19.31 crore shares at Rs 440 each, closed on July 19 with a 4.61% discount. Major investors include Abu Dhabi, SBI, Nippon. Chairman Anil Agarwal emphasized highest-ever production, Rs 1,41,793 crore revenue, Rs 36,455 crore EBITDA. Funds will de-leverage, targeting Rs 10 billion EBITDA, supporting projects and shareholder value.

Star fund manager Nilesh Shah believes there is some froth in certain pockets of the markets, where low floating stocks and concentrated counters are trading at exorbitant valuations.

In a market which is giving decent capital gains, looking at dividend yield stocks might not appeal to many. But when valuations are high and stocks which are IBC cases, quoting at half a billion market capitalization, then probably if one is looking at putting in fresh capital, it might be better to be cautious and don't ignore stocks where there is a cushion of dividend yield. There is reason to believe that if bears come to rule the street then dividend yield does act as cushion and even end up protecting capital. But then there are some things to be looked at before deciding to have dividend yield as a theme to invest. Track record of paying dividends on a regular basis for a decade or not. Yes, it might have missed one time in ten years, but the fact that if a company is paying a dividend continuously for ten years, it gives a reasonable level of comfort that it will continue to do so.

In this scenario, ET Markets filtered through a number of stock picks from various brokerages outside the largecap universe to navigate the budget uncertainty.

First it was auto companies like Tata motor & TVS motors which were re-rated due to their EV venture. Then as the time went, stocks like Bajaj Auto and Hero honda also joined the re-rating bandwagon. But the re-rating of the auto ancillary industry has been slower, for a valid reason. These auto ancillary units are dependent on their main buyers. So, for an auto ancillary company which has been supplying to the TVS motors, Tata motors the process of transformation started a long time back but for some others, where the major buyer which is the auto companies was late in coming out with the EV model, transition has been slower. But the biggest factor which distinguishes a winner and laggard in the auto ancillary industry is how proactive the management has been of auto ancillary companies in anticipating the demand and changing its priority. Some are able to do better than others.

In the last four years, beside different sectors getting rerated there has been another sort of re-rating which has been going on the street. Re-rating which is based on the ownership of that set of companies or is commonly known as the industrial houses. In most cases, this has been happening post some kind of restructuring which has been done at group levels. Whether it is demerging, takeover or re-focussing some of the business into additional areas. Now some of the old industrial houses have one big strength, a number of them have real estate assets which can be monetized so they don't have to rush to the capital market or take additional debt when they are re- focusing their priorities. In a number of cases, this has led to unlocking of value and better valuation on the street.

The combined market valuation of eight of the top-10 most valued firms jumped Rs 2,10,330.26 crore in a holiday-shorted last week, with Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Life Insurance Corporation of India emerging as the biggest gainers. Last week, the BSE benchmark climbed 85.31 points or 0.10 per cent. The 30-share BSE Sensex hit its new all-time high of 81,587.76 on Friday.

Due to the Lok Sabha Elections this year, the Union Budget 2024 will be presented twice. An interim budget was delivered on February 1, 2024, and the final budget is scheduled for July 23, 2024. During this period, the benchmark index Sensex rose approximately 12%, while the smallcap index saw a 15% increase.Notably, about 15 smallcap stocks have delivered substantial gains, ranging from 100% to 180%, significantly enriching investors. ETMarkets has highlighted the top 10 smallcap stocks that have multiplied in value between the interim and final budget presentations.

The performance clock starts ticking when the investment takes place rather than when the capital is committed. Secondly, investors retain full discretion on which sectors, companies and deals to participate in and at what stages of investing

Going forward, if the recent trend of weakness in dollar and bond yields persists, FPIs are likely to continue their buying in the market, VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services, said.

After the implementation of the T+1 framework, the record date and ex-date are the same in most cases unless there is a market holiday after the ex-date

During the weekend ending July 19, Indian stock markets experienced a slight weekly increase, as the Sensex showed negligible upward movement. ETMarkets identified five penny stocks that experienced price increases of more than 10% over the week. Our selection criteria focused on stocks with a market capitalization below Rs 10s00 crore, a share price under Rs 20, and a last trading volume exceeding 50 lakh shares.(Data Source: ACE Equity)

The short-term trend of Nifty seems to have reversed from all-time highs, Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities said. The formation of candle patterns as per daily and weekly charts indicate the possibility of more weakness in the market ahead, he warned.

The slowdown in core services, coupled with the rise in unemployment beyond 4% for the first time since November 2021, is encouraging. Additional indicators like housing, retail sales, and industrial activity also show weakening trends. As we observe these shifts in the economic landscape, we might witness a change in the Federal Reserve's narrative.

Over the past five trading sessions ending on July 19, the Sensex benchmark index rose by 0.89%, reaching a closing level of 80,604. This increase occurred in four out of the five sessions. During this period of upward movement, ETMarkets narrowed down to five stocks from the BSE500 that showed consistent price increases throughout the last five sessions. (Data Source: ACE Equity)

An ETMarkets analysis of BSE stocks with a market cap of over Rs 500 crore reveals that over the past three sessions (July 16-19), five stocks have consistently shown increases in their prices, trading volumes, and delivery volumes, indicating higher investor interest in these stocks. (Data Source: ACE Equity)

Pearl Global Industries raised Rs 149.50 crore via QIP from investors like HDFC, HSBC, ICICI Prudential, and Goldman Sachs Fund. They issued 20,45,143 shares at Rs 731.00 each, totaling 45,642,367 shares. Funds will support debt repayment, working capital, sustainable products, ESG initiatives, and growth. PGIL operates facilities in India and four other countries.

One of the biggest challenges when investing in mid-cap stocks is not about the price of the stock moving up and down. It is about the management of one’s own expectation and anxiety level. When the market witnesses volatility like they did on Friday, the anxiety index goes up. So, when looking at mid-caps, there are some must do things, from two perspectives. First, the stock selection and the way one takes exposure to the stocks so that the probability of making money in the long term increases; and secondly, ensure that one’s own anxiety index does not shoot up. Given the fact we have the budget coming this week, there is a high probability that we might see higher volatility and it becomes important to have checks and balances so that wrong decisions are avoided.

In June, FPIs turned net buyers in Indian equities, investing Rs 26,565 crore, reversing the trend of outflows in April and May. This followed a mixed start to the year, with selling in January, buying in February and March, and then selling again in the following months.

The dividend yield is the annual dividend payment to shareholders expressed as a percentage of a stock's current price. According to an Axis Securities report, 7 mid and smallcap stocks paid a dividend yield of up to 35% in the last 12 months. Here is the list:

When investing on the basis of what is going to come in the budget, beware of one thing: a sector which requires constant government support has some issue because of which it is being provided support by the government in one way or the other. But there is another side: if the support is provided till the time it is required and then the sector sees a turnaround, then, when it sees a turnaround, it's more sustained because the government support changes the whole ecosystem. Now because a major change in policy stance comes in the budget, budget becomes important for these companies. Now the risk factor is that if a change in policy does not come in the budget, then probably the wait becomes longer. In the current political and economic setup, there is a high probability that it might come, so have them on your watchlist.

Coalition politics often requires a delicate balancing act, with the government catering to diverse interests. This could lead to a more populist Budget aimed at appealing to a wider range of voters. However, considering the Modi government's history of implementing bold reforms, we might see a mixed approach that combines populist measures with continued reform initiatives.

When investing on the basis of what is going to come in the budget, beware of one thing: a sector which requires constant government support has some issue because of which it is being provided support by the government in one way or the other. But there is another side: if the support is provided till the time it is required and then the sector sees a turnaround, then, when it sees a turnaround, it's more sustained because the government support changes the whole ecosystem. Now because a major change in policy stance comes in the budget, budget becomes important for these companies. Now the risk factor is that if a change in policy does not come in the budget, then probably the wait becomes longer. In the current political and economic setup, there is a high probability that it might come, so have them on your watchlist.

Despite a global Microsoft Systems outage, Indian exchanges and clearing corporations operated smoothly with minimal impact. Only a few trading members experienced disruptions, which were promptly resolved. NSE and NCDEX continued trading activities, while MSE provided electronic trading services. Microsoft later fixed the underlying cause for Microsoft 365 Apps services.

On February 1 of each year, except for general election years, the Union government presents the Budget Estimate (BE) for the upcoming financial year, alongside the Revised Estimate (RE) for the current year and the actual figures for the previous year. The RE is an adjusted version of the initial BE, taking into account any modifications or alterations made during the financial year.