Nirmala Sitharaman’s Budget must balance welfare and capex amid coalition politics. Risks are capital gains tax hike, populist measures, and STT increases on equity sales and F&O. High Sensex, Nifty raise RBI, Sebi concerns. Robust GST, RBI dividend, asset monetisation help. Economic Survey critiques speculation. SAMCO, Bajaj, Windmill highlight volatility risks.

It might appear odd to some but the fact is that if one looks at the last few years' budget, it has been more a statement of what kind of policy changes will happen over the next twelve months or even longer period. So, a budget which defines policy direction rather than specific. Will the budget be different because it is coming with a backdrop of a stronger fiscal situation. Whatever the cases might be, one cannot rule out correction if there is any sort of disappointment for the street, probability of which looks a bit less. But because valuations are high one should be cautious and stay with large caps as a tactical trade. They might bear the brunt of trade initially but over a period of time in any corrective phase they tend to do well.

Select mid cap stocks getting back into momentum mode as broader market recovery gets pace.

Wall Street's benchmarks rose as megacap growth stocks like Alphabet and Tesla rebounded. Biden's withdrawal and Harris' potential candidacy create uncertainty. Market awaits earnings reports from tech giants. Shift towards smaller-cap stocks noted. Cybersecurity and airline sectors face challenges. Mattel Inc surges on acquisition offer news.

Hedging returns amid election, earnings, growth, and rate concerns. Cboe Volatility Index surged after Biden quit. Futures, October contracts rose in Asian trading and Hong Kong. Kaiser from Citigroup says Harris maintains policy continuity but adds risk premium due to late nomination change. Traders watch Tesla, Alphabet earnings and Fed rate cut expectations.

NSDL data shows foreign investors placed ₹22,670 crore into 19 sectors from July 1-15. Capital goods (₹3,612 crore) led, followed by automobiles (₹2,993 crore). Renewed interest in IT (₹2,765 crore), metals & mining (₹1,969 crore), oil & gas (₹1,944 crore), and FMCG. Healthcare saw ₹2,378 crore inflows. FPIs sold shares worth ₹1,949 crore in construction, power, chemicals, utilities.

Wipro shares fell 9% due to poor Q1 results, predicted to underperform Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services. The Nifty IT Index declined 0.38%, with Tech Mahindra gaining 0.11%. Morgan Stanley and 5paisa foresee more weakness and long position unwinding. JM Financial advises caution amid weak fundamentals, with Mohit Jain highlighting poor guidance.

“Tata Consumer stock has been fluctuating in the broader range of 1050-1175 zone with prices holding well above its 200-days exponential moving average (EMA) on daily and weekly time frame for the last 4-5 months. Traders can buy for a target of Rs 1360,” Shitij Gandhi, Senior Technical Analyst, SMC Global Securities, said.

Domestic markets closed lower on Monday with Reliance Industries and Kotak Bank under pressure. HUL and Bajaj Finance to announce Q1 results. Suzlon Energy reports impressive 200% YoY profit growth. Federal Bank appoints new MD and CEO. Gensol Engineering secures 116 MW solar project bid in Gujarat. TCS expands partnership with Rolls Royce. Coal India wins bid for graphite block.

Stocks in Asia rebound as investors shift focus to tech earnings season post Biden's campaign exit. Market sees volatility decrease, while big tech faces challenges. Positive outlook for US equities despite recent pullbacks. Oil stabilizes near five-week low due to CTA losses. Await Fed's inflation data and BOJ policy meeting.

The breakout has propelled the stock higher in the short- to medium-term. Experts advise traders to buy Tata Consumers for a target above 1,300 levels. The stock has rallied from Rs 860 as of July 19, 2023, to Rs 1,188 on July 19, 2024 — an upside of over 38% in a year. On March 7, 2024, it touched a record high of Rs 1,269, but the rally lost steam soon after and the stock started trading in a narrow range.

Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty ended lower on Monday, dragged down by heavy selling pressure in Reliance Industries and Kotak Mahindra Bank ahead of the Budget. Besides, a weak trend in global equity markets also hit investors sentiment, traders said.Falling for the second day in a row, the 30-share index ended 102.57 points or 0.13% lower at 80,502.08. The NSE Nifty dipped 21.65 points or 0.09% to 24,509.25. "While Nifty continues to hold above the 20 and 50-day SMA ahead of the Budget to be announced tomorrow (Tuesday), the short term trend remains down. Further downsides are likely once the immediate support of 24362 is broken. Any pullback rallies could find resistances at 24595-24646," said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.Here are 5 stock recommendations for Tuesday:

Madhusudan Kela has over Rs 2,092.2 crore invested in various stocks. He suggests increasing the lot size in the stock market to deter excessive retail participation. He believes this would be a better solution than imposing additional taxes, which he considers excessive and harmful to the market.

Capital markets regulator Sebi has not received any specific information on any 'unfair trading' in the stock market crash on the Lok Sabha poll results day on June 4, which wiped out billions of investors wealth, Parliament was informed on Monday.

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway reduced its stake in BYD to below 5%, in what could be the final time Berkshire discloses stock sales in China's largest producer of electric vehicles.

Wall Street starts higher as investors assess odds of Trump's re-election post Biden's withdrawal; Dow up 0.32%, S&P 500 and Nasdaq also rise at open.

The Economic Survey reveals that 20% of Indian households are now investing their savings in financial markets. It cites data showing that unique tax IDs registered on the NSE surged to 92 million in FY24, from 27 million just five years ago.

The Economic Survey, presented by the Finance Minister in Parliament, cautions about the high valuations of the Indian stock market. The survey highlights that India's market capitalisation to GDP ratio has surged to 124% in FY24, up from 77% in FY19.

Markets regulator Sebi on Monday extended the deadline for submission of public comments to July 29 on the proposal of providing additional time for disclosure of litigations or disputes involving claims against listed firms.

The negative crossover in daily and hourly momentum indicators signals a sell opportunity. Key support levels to watch are 24,265 (20-day moving average) and 24,000 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level). A breakout above 24,860 could push the market towards 25,530, according to Jatin Gedia of Sharekhan.

The Indian market closed lower on Monday as traders preferred to remain on the sidelines in the run up to Budget 2024. The S&P BSE Sensex fell over 100 points while Nifty50 closed above 24,500 levels.

The Tatas have raised the authorized equity capital of Tata Electronics to Rs 10,000 crore in FY24, indicating they may make fresh equity infusion of over Rs 6,000 crore since the paid up capital till now is Rs 3961 crore.

Favorable announcements in the housing sector could boost stocks of realty, cement, and housing finance companies. Credit ratings agency CareEdge predicts the government will increase funding for affordable housing schemes, driving construction and employment.

The demand is to levy a uniform 10% tax (plus applicable surcharge and cess) on equities held for more than one year and up to three years on the capital gains exceeding Rs 2 lakh in a financial year. Moreover, a full exemption from capital gains tax if held for more than three years, by suitable amendments to section 112A.

Though the 30-share index fell over 103 points, or 0.13%, to settle at 80,502 and the broader NSE Nifty dropped 22 points, or 0.09%, investors reaped Rs 2.07 lakh crore reward. From the Sensex pack, RIL and Kotak Mahindra Bank were top laggards, falling about 3.5%. ITC, SBI, HCL Tech, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finance and Bajaj Finserv also closed lower, while NTPC, UltraTech Cement, HDFC Bank, and Tata Steel closed higher.

The stock of Persistent Systems staged a recovery on Monday with nearly 4% gain after losing over 6% on Friday following a sequential fall in net profit and contraction in operating margin for the June quarter. A ramp up in large deals, H1B processing costs and expenses towards ESOP took a toll on profitability.

"Free reserves of Rs 28.31 crore will be utilised for the bonus issue. Bonus issue is aimed at to reward existing shareholders, enhance liquidity, and expand the shareholder base," the company said.

The 30-share index fell 103 points, or 0.13%, to settle at 80,502. The broader NSE Nifty dropped 22 points, or 0.09%. From the Sensex pack, RIL and Kotak Mahindra Bank were top laggards, falling about 3.5%. ITC, SBI, HCL Tech, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finance and Bajaj Finserv also closed lower, while NTPC, UltraTech Cement, HDFC Bank, and Tata Steel closed higher.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is scheduled to present the final Budget of 2024 on Tuesday. ETMarkets has analysed the performance of Sensex stocks over the last 10 Budget days. The findings highlight interesting outcomes, particularly in the case of ITC, where its shares closed positively in 9 out of the last 10 Budget days. Additionally, we have identified a total of 6 stocks that have shown a positive closing for 7 or more times out of the last 10 Budget days. (Data Source: ACE Equity)

The demand is to levy a uniform 10% tax (plus applicable surcharge and cess) on equities held for more than one year and up to three years on the capital gains exceeding Rs 2 lakh in a financial year. Moreover, a full exemption from capital gains tax if held for more than three years, by suitable amendments to section 112A.

Short covering refers to the buying of shares to close an existing short position, signaling a shift from extreme bearishness to bullishness. In Monday's trading session, five stocks saw short covering. Here's the list:

Amid discussions on regulatory measures to deter retail traders from risking savings on F&O, the Economic Survey cautioned that traders facing losses could feel victimized by undisclosed influences. It also criticized market practices resembling highly leveraged bets seen as financial innovations in developed countries, deeming them unsuitable for a developing nation with low per-capita income.

Indian benchmark equity indices dropped on Monday, weighed down by Reliance Industries and Wipro after both companies posted weaker-than-expected quarterly results, while volatility spiked a day ahead of the union budget. However, in today's trading session, five large and midcap stocks from the Nifty200 index hit a new 52-week high. Here's the list:

India, holding the fifth-largest GDP, attracts significant FPIs and FDIs despite recent tax changes. SEBI manages these investments while high-interest debt instruments draw global investors, targeting infrastructure and manufacturing. The Income-tax Act adjustments influence concessional rates. Simplified tax compliance and parity in tax rates for domestic and foreign investors further boost investment appeal.

There are talks on the Street about the affordable housing sector getting another round of push in the current budget. It is not the first time in the last ten years that it will be happening. It has happened in the past also. But there are some key differences between when it happened earlier and today's situation. The biggest being the fact that a regulatory tightening and a cleanup has taken place in the housing finance sector. The books of HFCs are in a much better condition, right from asset liability standpoint and also in terms of sustainability of growth. Because the memories from the past scams and troubles are still haunting the sector, there is bias against them, but probably it is time to look at them afresh, given the fact that housing is one of the most important sectors of the economy and housing finance companies form an important part of this ecosystem.

IHCL shares surged by 7% as Q1FY25 PAT rose 12% YoY to Rs 248 crore, achieving revenue of Rs 1,596 crore. Brokerages generally viewed the results positively despite some rating downgrades. EBITDA increased by 8% to Rs 496 crore, though ARR dropped due to heatwave. Portfolio includes 325 hotels.

Anand Rathi raises Suzlon Energy's target price to Rs 58, forecasting increased demand in utilities and industrial sectors.

India's Buffett Indicator (market cap-to-GDP ratio) is at alarming levels, highlighted in the Economic Survey presented in Parliament. Despite reaching 124% by December 2023 and an estimated 136% by June 2024, caution is advised as it doesn't correlate with economic progress. Factors include a strong macro outlook, corporate earnings, and significant retail and foreign investments driving market highs.

Anant Raj shares climbed 12% to Rs 540 after Anant Raj Cloud signed a MoU with Google for data center and AI solutions. With a 164% annual return and positioned at a 56 RSI, the stock remains strong above its moving averages. Despite JSW Steel's profit drop, Anant Raj shows robust performance.

Its net profit stood at Rs 321.64 crore in the year-ago period. The company's revenue from operations increased 54.4% to Rs 1,405.2 crore against Rs 910 crore in the corresponding period of the preceding fiscal.

JSW Steel saw a 2.5% drop in shares after reporting a 64% decline in net profit for Q1. Brokerage firms have mixed views on the stock, with varying target prices. Despite challenges, the company remains optimistic about growth prospects.

BPCL's stock rose 3.5% after reporting a 71% decline in Q1FY25 net profit. Analysts offer varied perspectives, citing concerns over refining performance, market share loss, and significant future capex. The company's financial outlook remains uncertain.

Kotak Mahindra Bank saw its shares drop 3% due to NIM disappointment at 5.02% for Q1FY25. Despite a robust 81% increase in standalone net profit to Rs 6,250 crore, concerns persist over funding costs and margin pressures. Brokerages advise caution as RBI restrictions continue to impact growth and profitability.

The momentum in domestic softened last week as profit booking was seen ahead of the Union Budget 2024. In the upcoming week, the outcome of the Union Budget, quarterly earnings from corporates and global trends are the major factors that will drive stock market sentiments. In this setup, here are 5 stocks that you can consider buying for robust returns in the short term.

YES Bank shares surged 5% to Rs 26 on BSE following its report of a standalone net profit of Rs 502.43 crore for Q1 FY2024, marking a 47% increase from Rs 342.52 crore a year ago. Interest earned in the quarter rose 19.8% to Rs 7,719.15 crore from Rs 6,443.22 crore in the same period last year.

Emkay Global cautions of a potential 5-10% correction in Sensex and Nifty amid a post-election market rally. Smallcap and midcap stocks could see sharper declines. Nirmala Sitharaman's upcoming Union Budget is anticipated to prioritize capital expenditure (capex) over revenue expenditure (revex), signaling policy continuity.

HDFC Bank's stock rose 3% to Rs 1650.7 on BSE. Q1FY25 net profit was Rs 16,175 crore, up 35% YoY but down 2% QoQ. Interest earned was Rs 73,033 crore, expended Rs 43,196 crore.

Aelea Commodities shares listed on BSE SME at a 73.7% premium. The IPO, booked over 190 times, traded at a Rs 77 premium in the unlisted market. Proceeds will fund a new unit, plant setup, expenses, and corporate purposes. The company trades cashews and other commodities B2B, B2C, imports raw cashew nuts from Africa, and emphasizes customer satisfaction.

Wipro's shares dropped by over 7% despite a 4.6% YoY rise in net profit for the quarter ended June 2024. The revenue from operations saw a 4% decline compared to the same quarter last year. Brokerages have mixed views on Wipro's performance and growth prospects.

Three M Paper Boards listed at Rs 76 on the BSE SME platform, 10% above the Rs 69 issue price. Shares had a Rs 30 unlisted market premium and the IPO was subscribed 171 times. Funds will support new machinery, Ratnagiri plant upgrades, low-pressure boiler, working capital, and debt repayment; it makes biodegradable, recycled paper-based products for diverse industries.