Opening Bell: Sensex falls 500 pts, Nifty below 17,500; Adani Gas tumbles 18%, Adani Enterprises rises 8%

Adani Group said that the timing of the report was suspect and seems to be directed at sabotaging the Rs 20,000 crore follow-on public offer (FPO) by Adani Enterprises Ltd (AEL) that ends January 31.

"Indusind bank is a tactical buy under the mid-tier private banks.. We expect RoAs of ~2% for FY24E and FY25E, driving RoE (return on equity) of 16% for the respective years going ahead. We believe the current valuations of 1.7x/ 1.5x/ 1.3x its FY23E/ FY24E/ FY25E book value estimates looks cheap vs ROA trajectory of ~2%," Rahul Malani- DVP Fundamental Research, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas, said.

Bharat Petroleum Corporation’s daily trend is sideways. RSI for monthly, weekly, and daily is indicating a sideways trend. Based on option chain analysis, the range is between 330 and 350. Let’s plan a trade around this.

Following the release of the Hindenburg Research report last week and a short-selling attack on Adani Group stocks, ₹4.2 lakh crore ($51 billion) was wiped off their market value in two trading sessions. Adani Group CFO Jugeshinder Singh tells The Economic Times in an interview that the timing of the report was suspect and seems to be directed at sabotaging the Rs 20,000 crore follow-on public offer (FPO) by Adani Enterprises Ltd (AEL) that ends January 31.

The stock peaked on April 22 at 2848. Thereafter price was observed to be ranging between 2800-2350. Recently price has breached the rising trendline support and is expected to slide lower. The breakdown of the support was accompanied by a rise in volume which increases the reliability of the breakdown.

"Adani failed to specifically answer 62 of our 88 questions. Of the questions it did answer, the group largely confirmed or attempted to sidestep our findings," Hindenburg said in reply to Adani's explainations, adding that these explanations simply defy common sense.

The counter has witnessed the breakdown from an upward-sloping channel on the longer time frame while witnessing a breakdown of a long consolidation pattern on the shorter time frame with strong volume.

ET Now spoke to various experts and here's what they have to recommend for today's trading session. Nooresh Merani has a buy/sell recommendation on SBI and GAIL while Rajesh Palviya has a buy/sell recommendation on ITC and Bajaj Auto for today's trading session. Check out the targets and stoploss.

The markets went into a further tizzy on Friday, again triggered by the US investment firm’s report against the Adani group, closing sharply down. Volatility is expected in the markets ahead of the Union Budget on February 1.

The February futures contract of Nifty 50 traded on the Singapore Exchange indicates positive start for domestic equities today. The contract was trading at 17,751.50, up 62 points or 0.35% from the previous close.

The counter has witnessed the breakdown from an upward-sloping channel on the longer time frame while witnessing a breakdown of a long consolidation pattern on the shorter time frame with strong volume.

Adani Group told Reuters in a statement on Saturday that the sale remains on schedule at the planned issue price, even as sources said bankers on the country's largest secondary share sale were considering extending the timeline beyond Jan. 31, or tweaking the price due to the fall in its share price.

Investors are confident the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, followed the day after by half-point hikes from the Bank of England and European Central Bank, and any deviation from that script would be a real shock.

In a detailed point-by-point rebuttal, the group maintained that the charges levelled in the report appeared to be "selective and manipulative presentation of matters already in the public domain to create a false narrative". It also shows complete ignorance or deliberate disregard for applicable legal and accounting standards as well as industry practices, the group said.

​​The business tycoon has lost nearly $27 billion of his net worth so far this year. Adani’s wealth fell by $6 billion on Wednesday and another $20.8 billion on Friday to $92.7 billion, showed the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

In addition, the exchange was ranked third in the equity segment by the number of trades (electronic order book) in 2022, an advancement from the previous year when it was in the fourth position, as per statistics maintained by the World Federation of Exchanges (WFE).

The dollar bondholders were jittery about timely payment because 100% of the promoter's equity is pledged with lenders, and delay in arranging refinance prompted Moody's to downgrade the 'corporate family rating' by one notch last October. Within days of the downgrade, Vedanta announced it would discontinue rating engagement with Moody's.

Last month, the two-wheeler maker was able to post record-high operating profit per vehicle of ₹7,500, with revenue growth driven by higher average selling price (ASP), which was a result of price increase as well as rising share of higher-priced models such as EV scooters, Jupiter 125 and Raider. In the December quarter, the ASP of TVS Motor increased by 14.6% year-on-year to ₹74,400, while total volumes increased by just 0.1% from the year-ago quarter to 879,423 units.

According to data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), credit growth contracted by 0.2% year-on-year during the fortnight that ended January 13. Non-food credit fell by ₹20,499 crore on-year while food credit fell by ₹23,159 crore.

The share price of Ambuja Cements plunged as much as 25% on Friday, its steepest intra-day fall since 2006. The stock closed 17% lower at ₹380.45. The Adani Ports stock declined 23% last week, and 16.3% on Friday alone, to close at ₹596.95, its lowest close since February 11, 2021.

Morgan Stanley said any tinkering with long-term capital gains tax (LTCG) on equities - either an increase in the investment duration, to qualify as long-term, from 12 months to two or three years, or raising the effective tax rate to 15%, from 10% currently - will result in investors becoming more risk-averse when it comes to equities.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 73.8. RSI above 70 is considered overbought. This implies that the stock may show a pullback. MACD is above its center and signal Line, this is a bullish indicator. The Nifty IT has been making higher lows in the 3 weeks and momentum has started with support-based buying strongly visible.

LIC is sitting on 100% gains on its stock and bond investments in Adani Group companies the total value of which is ₹56,000 crore compared to an investment of about ₹28,000 crore, a senior LIC executive told ET.

"I expect that we will raise rates a few more times this year, though, to my mind, the days of us raising them 75 basis points at a time have surely passed," Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said in a Jan. 20 speech. "Hikes of 25 basis points will be appropriate going forward."

​Nifty has broken down from its consolidation range and slipped below its 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) of 17,900 levels, which was being defended for the past 23 sessions. The short-term moving averages are in a falling mode, which indicates the bearish momentum could continue in the upcoming week.

In response to a 106-page report by Hindenburg, the Gautam Adani-led conglomerate has issued a 413-page long response answering all the 88 questions asked by the US-based research firm. Hindenburg took “short positions” and then, to effect a downward spiral of share price and make a wrongful gain, Hindenburg published a document to manipulate and depress the price of stock, and create a false market," Adani said.

“IT index has been forming higher lows from last 3 weeks which indicates support-based buying is intact with volumes. Most of the IT stocks are seeing short covering move, and we like Persistent Systems,” Shivangi Sarda, Senior Executive - Analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited, said.

India’s stocks now account for more than 14% of MSCI’s emerging-market equities index, trailing only China, after it surpassed the weightings of Taiwan and South Korea last year. Morgan Stanley predicts India’s equity market is set to be the world’s third largest before the end of the decade. The downfall of one of India’s most-sprawling businesses could be what holds the nation back as it competes against China as an investment magnet.

From the rollover perspective, Nifty has started the new series with six-month low open interest ahead of crucial events. At the same time, Nifty near month premium remained on higher side amid high VIX (17%), which need to be subside significantly from current levels. We believe post events, we may see decline in volatility and premium both, which should provide support to the market.

In the equity segment, exchange traded funds (ETFs) daily average turnover stood at Rs 470 crores in CY2022, an increase of 51% YoY. Sovereign Gold Bonds daily average turnover in the secondary market stood at Rs 7 crores in CY 2022, an increase of 59% YoY. Government securities which have been made available in the equity segment of NSE is also seeing significant growth, albeit on a lower base with volumes touching a daily average turnover of Rs 3 crores in the last month.

From the rollover perspective, Nifty has started the new series with six-month low open interest ahead of crucial events. At the same time, Nifty near month premium remained on higher side amid high VIX (17%), which need to be subside significantly from current levels. We believe post events, we may see decline in volatility and premium both, which should provide support to the market.

"It is widely acknowledged that India remains at risk tactically because of the need to fund increased positions in China but there is widespread agreement that India remains the best long-term equity story in the Asia and emerging market context. To deal with this conundrum, investors seem to be reducing exposure to high PE Indian consumer discretionary stocks rather than reducing core bank holdings. This makes sense to GREED & fear, most particularly as Indian banks are looking cheap relative to the Indian market."

In an interview to PTI, Singh said the group will release a comprehensive response to the Hindenburg report, "providing documentary evidence" to "clearly outline that there was no research done and that there wasn't any investigating reporting. Only pure baseless misrepresentation of factual situations, if not lies." The selloff in Adani stocks is being looked into by market regulator Sebi and stock exchanges.

The Single Family Office (SFO) structures are designed to help establishment of these Family Offices without the requirement of any license or become registered to provide fund management services to the investment vehicles held by a ultra-high net worth family.

An over 21% fall in Adani Ports shares in the last two trading days of the week gone by resulted in over Rs 3,000 crore of losses for LIC. In Adani Enterprises, the flagship company of the group, LIC incurred a loss of close to Rs 3,300 crore due to a 20% fall in the share price on Wednesday and Friday. Besides these two companies, the country’s largest life insurer holds significant stake in Adani Total Gas, ACC and Ambuja Cements.

In a holiday-shortened week to January 27, 2023, equity headline indices Nifty and Sensex both fell by over 2% each. A host of factors including the report by the US-based investment research firm on Adani Group, continued FII selling and increase in bond-yield led to the sharp losses on the D-Street ahead of the Union Budget announcement next week. “We observed a trend on the downside during the week. The upside resistance was at 18200 and the index turned precisely from there and now we have a confirmed breakdown below 17775. The breakdown has a shape that resembles a bearish flash pattern and if this pattern works then we might see the targets of 17200 – 17000 in the coming few weeks. The pattern will get negated only above 18200. Thus the view is clear that till the time 18200 is not taken out we are in a sell on rise mode,” Mehul Kothari, AVP-Technical Research, Anand Rathi, said.Here are stock recommendations for Monday:

In 2020, the government realised the lacunas of the previous initiatives, came back to the drawing board alongside the ministries and drafted the Production

Back home, inflation has been following a similar trajectory although it has recently been showing signs of peaking off. Since we do not live in an isolated world, global markets including ours will move in a synchronized fashion. No market can remain decoupled from another for long although there may be a lag in market moves.

Key questions for Fed Chair Jerome Powell at his post-meeting press conference will be how much higher the central bank intends to raise rates, and what officials need to see before pausing.

Although the RBI guidelines seem promising, seamless debt recovery from borrowers is still a far-fetched reality for lenders. One of the major pain points of every lender is irregular payments and loan defaults by borrowers. Since interest is the primary income source for lenders, many commercial banks and regulated entities are facing losses and are becoming reluctant to offer loans in the future due to the piling up of non-performing assets (NPAs).

Ahead of Budget 2023, stock market data research firm William O'Neil India has selected some promising stocks, which have the strength and potential to yield good returns. William O'Neil believes stocks such as TVS Motors, ITC, and Apollo Tyres will provide good opportunities for hefty returns this year. Based on the recommendations from William O'Neil, here are six top stocks to buy:

Every time a trader executes a trade, invests in a company or buys and sells gold futures, there are some companies which will be a part of that trade. Some of these companies form part of what is called “market infrastructure institutions” (MII). These companies are now clearly part of the financial ecosystem and have attracted high institutional interest. ET screener powered by Refinitiv’s Stock Report Plus lists down stocks with high upside potential over the next 12 months, having an average recommendation rating of “buy” or "strong buy".

For FPIs, 2022 was a subdued year in terms of flow and withdrawal from equities after a net investment in the preceding three years.According to the data with the depositories, FPIs have made a net withdrawal of Rs 17,023 crore this month (till January 27).

While announcing its earnings for the third quarter of December 2022, LTIMindtree's board also approved an interim dividend of Rs 20 per share. Shares of LTIMindtree fell nearly 1% to Rs 4,397 apiece on the BSE in Friday's trade. LTI Mindtree is a large-cap IT firm with a market capitalization of Rs 1,30,63 crore.

"As the finance minister of India, there are several steps that can be taken to improve the country's economic situation. By addressing the issues of high inflation, unemployment, increasing foreign investment, improving infrastructure and implementing capital market reforms, the finance minister can help to promote economic growth and improve the lives of citizens."

"We are hoping to reduce debt further by Rs 1,000 crore by end of this fiscal year to about Rs 7000 crore," Lodha said.The company plans to cut debt by Rs 500-800 crore every quarter."We will hope to be close to Rs 5,000 crore of net debt sometime by end of this calendar year," Lodha said.

Results that will be out on January 30 include Larsen & Toubro, Bajaj Finserv, Tech Mahindra, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Bajaj Holdings & Investment, GAIL, SRF, Punjab National Bank, REC, Laurus Labs, IIFL Finance, Trident, Exide Industries, Nippon Life India Asset Management, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, Welspun as well as Inox Leisure.

An over 21% fall in Adani Ports shares in the last two trading days of the week gone by resulted in over Rs 3,000 crore of losses for LIC. In Adani Enterprises, the flagship company of the group, LIC incurred a loss of close to Rs 3,300 crore due to a 20% fall in the share price on Wednesday and Friday. Besides these two companies, the country’s largest life insurer holds significant stake in Adani Total Gas, ACC and Ambuja Cements.

The group has prepared a response of more than 100 pages and is also seeking legal advice on when to release it, one of the people said, asking not to be identified because the information is private. While it won’t be before Jan. 31, the people did not specify when the reply would come.